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Middle East crisis live: US claims blockade has ‘completely halted economic trade’ into Iran, as Trump hints at return to talks in Pakistan | US-Israel war on Iran
Key events
Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif will depart for an official visit to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, his office said, as Islamabad continues feverish rounds of diplomacy aimed at facilitating US-Iran peace talks.
Prime minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif will depart from Islamabad for Jeddah today on an official visit to Saudi Arabia, accompanied by a high-level delegation.”
Saudi Arabia is one of Washington’s regional allies to have come under attack from Iran since the outbreak of the war in February. Islamabad’s finance ministry announced on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia would provide Pakistan with $3bn to help bolster the country’s foreign reserves.
Sharif will also travel to Qatar and Turkey.
In Turkey, Sharif is expected to participate in the fifth Antalya Diplomacy Forum and hold meetings with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and other world leaders.
Are non-Iranian vessels transiting through the strait of Hormuz?
America’s blockade of Iranian ports is designed to choke off Iran’s oil revenues and force the regime back to the negotiating table – but it could have the added effect of removing almost two millions barrels of oil a day from the world market, further tightening global supply.
Data shows that Iran exported an average of 1.84m barrels per day in March, despite the ongoing war. But exports from Gulf countries that rely on the strait of Hormuz to get their oil to market have been severely curtailed by Iran’s defacto blockade of the strait since early March.
The US military appears to be seeking to establish secure passage for non-Iranian ships in order to restart the flow of oil through the strait – and White House officials have briefed some US media that more than 20 vessels not linked to Iran have transited through the waterway since the blockade began.
But experts and analysts who track shipping movements have questioned the accuracy of those claims.
Maritime data company Kpler said “traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below typical levels” and noted just six vessels crossed through the strait on Monday, when the blockade began.
Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian and an associate professor at Campbell University in North Carolina, said “the Trump Administration talks a lot about ships coming through the Strait but there is no indication yet.”
Kpler has said confidence among shipowners remains weak, with uncertainty weighing on “transit decisions.”
For now, the operating environment remains high risk, limiting any meaningful recovery in flows.”
Experts have said that despite the presence of the US navy, many shipping companies will be wary of entering or leaving the strait out of fear of attacks from Iran. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has said it will not resume transiting the strait for now as the situation remains tense.
At a Turning Points USA event in Georgia on Tuesday, US vice-president JD Vance faced heckles from an audience member – who appeared to be criticising the Trump administration for its stance on Gaza.
JD Vance has said Iran will “thrive” if it commits to not having a nuclear weapon. Speaking at a Turning Point USA event in Georgia, the US vice-president said Donald Trump “doesn’t want to make, like, a small deal. He wants to make the grand bargain.”
We’re going to make it economically prosperous, and we’re going to invite the Iranian people into the world economy in a way they haven’t been in my entire life.”
Vance – who took part in weekend negotiations with Iran in Pakistan – said there was a lot of mistrust between Washington and Tehran that cannot be resolved overnight, but that Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal and that he felt “very good about where we are.”
Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, Trump said on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. The fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran still has a week to run.
Trump: ‘I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead’
Donald Trump has made further hints that talks with Iran could resume in Pakistan, telling an ABC reporter that he did not think it would be necessary to extend the two-week ceasefire that ends on 21 April.
“I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told reporter Jonathan Karl.
It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild …They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”
The signs of diplomatic engagement helped calm oil markets, pressing benchmark prices down for a second day on Wednesday. Asian stocks rose while the safe-haven dollar stabilised after falling for a seventh straight session overnight.
Summary
Welcome to the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East.
The US military has said American forces have completely halted economic trade going in and out of Iran by sea through a blockade.
After talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough, Donald Trump declared a naval blockade on ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf in an effort to increase pressure on the country’s economy, and as a counter to Iran’s near-total closure of the strait of Hormuz to ships using other Gulf ports.
The blockade has created further uncertainty for shippers, oil companies and war risk insurers.
On Wednesday morning, US central command (Centcom) said US forces had “achieved maritime superiority in the Middle East”.
An estimated 90% of Iran’s economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.”
Donald Trump has said that talks with Iran could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, according to an interview with the New York Post. “Something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump was quoted as saying.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio said Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on Tuesday were a “historic opportunity”. He said that while every complexity would not be resolved immediately, he hoped the parties would begin to move forward.
Lebanon’s president expressed hope that direct talks would lead to an end to his country’s “suffering” after war erupted again between Israel and Hezbollah last month. “I hope that the meeting in Washington… will mark the beginning of the end of the suffering of the Lebanese people in general, and those in the south in particular,” president Joseph Aoun said in a statement, adding that “stability will not return to the south if Israel continues to occupy its lands”.
Lebanon’s top envoy to the US said the high-level diplomatic engagement between her country and Israel was “constructive,” but urged an end to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants that has displaced thousands of Lebanese. After participating in Tuesday’s talks with Rubio and Israel’s ambassador to the US, Nada Hamadeh Moawad said she had “underscored the need to preserve our territorial integrity and state sovereignty”.
The US will not renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week officials told Reuters, as the US imposes a blockade on shipments from Iranian ports.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron will co-host a summit in Paris on Friday focused on efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz, Downing Street said. A spokesperson said: “The summit will advance work towards a coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping once the conflict ends.”
Trump criticised Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, a political ally, in an interview published on Tuesday for her unwillingness to help in the Iran war. “I’m shocked at her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong,” he told Italian daily Corriere della Sera.
Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt will meet Turkey’s top diplomat this week for talks on regional matters, a ministry source told AFP on Tuesday. “This is the third meeting of the four countries to discuss regional affairs, not specifically Hormuz,” said the source, who wished to remain anonymous.
Hezbollah said it targeted 13 northern Israeli towns with rockets shortly after the start of Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington. In a statement, the group said it targeted Kiryat Shmona, Metula and 11 other towns “with simultaneous rocket salvos” at 6.15pm.
US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said the underlying US economy remains strong and that growth could still exceed 3% or 3.5% this year despite the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran. Earlier on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecasts for 2026 based on the impact of the war and said any further escalation in the conflict could trigger a global recession. Bessent however cast cuts in global growth forecasts and higher inflation projections by the IMF and World Bank as an overreaction.
