Telecom capex to fall 2% this year

Telecom capex for the approximately 50 service providers covered in the Dell’Oro Telecom Capex Report—representing roughly 80% of capex —was flat in nominal US dollar terms last year..

This implies that the relationship between capex and telecom equipment revenue across the six programs tracked by Dell’Oro Group—Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and Service Provider Router & Switch—remained stable.

Equipmentt manufacturer revenue increased 4% YoY in 2025.. The slightly stronger equipment vs. capex growth can, to some degree, be explained by the boost from the cloud providers. Dell’Oro estimates they accounted for around half of the growth in equipment revenue.

“We’re seeing an interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility, “says Dell’Oro  vp Stefan Pongratz, “operators remain optimistic about the long-term network vision, particularly as AI drives new demand, but in the short term they are taking a more cautious stance, with many planning to moderate capex.”

With carrier revenues on track to increase modestly (~2 percent CAGR), the capex-to-revenue ratio is projected to approach 14 percent by 2029.

Wireless capital intensity is projected to approach 11 percent in 2029, down seven percentage points from the 5G peak.