SA state election 2026: Labor confident, but first results show big swings to One Nation in regional South Australia | South Australian election 2026

Peter Malinauskas appears on track for a landslide re-election victory in South Australia’s state election as polls closed at 6pm, local time (6.30pm AEDT), on Saturday.

But early results indicated One Nation’s recent polling surge was being replicated in the results. The race is a key test for the Pauline Hanson-led party, with the Liberal opposition’s lower-house seats tipped to be reduced from the 13 it holds to single digits.

The first batch of results showed huge swings to One Nation in several regional seats, including Narungga on the Yorke Peninsula, Chaffey in the Riverland and Hammond in Murray Bridge.

“I think it will be a new start for South Australia, to have a strong voice and a real opposition in the state” Hanson said as she arrived at the party’s election night event.

“I think that’s what people want. People keep saying to us ‘you’re our last hope’.”

University of Sydney political scientist Luke Mansillo said the early results could signal a major shift.

“One Nation appears to be doing as well, if not better, than in the Queensland election in 1998,” he said.

One Nation won 11 seats in that state poll.

“It’s unquestionably a potential realignment of Australian politics. We don’t know about its longevity.”

One Nation blocked the ABC from attending its event in Adeliade, after the public broadcaster reported its candidate for Adelaide was the subject of an arrest warrant in the UK. The party disendorsed Aoi Baxter amid revelations he failed to attend a court date after being charged with an alleged sexual offence.

The federal Liberal MP Tony Pasin, appearing on the Sky News election night panel, admitted shortly after polls closed that holding six to eight seats would be an acceptable result for the Liberals in the circumstances.

Labor entered the campaign the clear favourite to win re-election due to the Labor leader’s personal popularity and the chaos and scandal that plagued the Liberals for much of the term. It holds 29 of the 47 state seats going into Saturday’s election, with five in the hands of independents.

More than 35% of the state voted before election day, a record result, and up from about 17% at the 2022 poll.

The Liberals turned to first-term MP Ashton Hurn late last year after internal polling suggested the party was careering towards an election wipeout, making the 35-year-old the party’s fourth leader in four years.

Election victory would hand Malinauskas a mandate to deliver a second-term agenda centered on building more homes, making public education free and keeping children away from screens.

The premier faced scrutiny during the campaign about the response to the algal bloom crisis. He conceded the government had failed to fix ambulance ramping at hospitals – his signature promise at the 2022 election.

The state poll has been billed as the first real test of One Nation’s growing support in national opinion polls since the 2025 federal election.

The party’s federal leader, Pauline Hanson, spent much of the past week campaigning in regional SA with Cory Bernardi, the former Liberal senator who was unveiled as One Nation’s state leader in February.

Despite the Liberals directing supporters to put One Nation ahead of Labor, Hanson’s party did not return the favour, opting instead to run open tickets on their how-to-vote cards in the state. The move could complicate results in some close-run seats, and slow down the final results.

The election was also the first under the state’s new electoral laws, which ban donations to political parties.

Federal Labor will be watching the results closely but the federal Coalition, including the opposition leader, Angus Taylor, and the new Nationals leader, Matt Canavan, will be even more intensely focused on Hanson’s results.

Counting will continue until 1am on Sunday morning.